Bridgepoint has raised its profit guidance for 2026 and the medium term, driven by an acceleration in performance-related earnings from its flagship energy transition fund.
The London-listed alternative manager expects performance-related earnings – its share of fund carried interest – to reach 37% to 39% of total income for the year ending December 2026.
The spike stems from its 13% carry share in Energy Capital Partners V (ECP V), where a valuation mark-up on portfolio company ProEnergy is projected to push the fund’s overall multiple on invested capital (MOIC) past 4.0x as of 30 September 2026.
The firm expects sustained carried interest crystallisation across its fund vintages to lift performance fees to between 25% and 30% of total income in the medium term. This operational gearing into higher-margin carry is projected to increase group corporate EBITDA margins to approximately 60% in 2027, up from previous guidance of 55–60%.
The group anticipates £2.4bn in total cash receipts over the next five years, comprising £1.3bn from performance fees and £1.1bn from co-investments, compared to £500m over the prior five-year period.
The increased visibility on carry realisations has prompted a new payout framework targeting a distribution of 40% to 60% of ‘Cash from Profits’ – a newly introduced metric combining operating cash from Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) with realised carried interest and co-investment proceeds.
The payout policy includes rebasing the full-year 2026 dividend to 15p per share and moving to quarterly distributions from 2027.
In addition, Bridgepoint completed its 2024–2026 fundraising target a quarter early, securing more than €28bn (£23.7bn). Recent closes include Bridgepoint Direct Lending IV at €5.1bn (£4.3bn) – a 76% increase on its predecessor – and ECP VI at $8.1bn (£6.1bn).
Flagship buyout fund Bridgepoint Europe VIII has gathered €7.8bn (£6.6bn) and is expected to hit its €8.65bn (£7.3bn) hard cap later this year.
The platform expansion is set to widen further with the acquisition of Kayne Anderson Real Estate (KARE), which received shareholder approval on 1 October 2026 and is scheduled to close on 4 January 2027. The deal expands Bridgepoint’s real assets and credit footprint, taking total combined platform assets under management to approximately $117bn (£88.5bn).
Raoul Hughes, chief executive of Bridgepoint, said: “I’m delighted to announce a material upgrade in our expectations for 2026 EBITDA. That outcome, when combined with the strong performance of our entire product suite, means that this level of performance isn’t a one-off and will continue such that we are also able to sustain upgraded guidance for EBITDA into the medium-term.
“Those changes, along with the further diversification of the platform post the announcement of Kayne Bridgepoint joining the group, means we are able to introduce a new capital distribution policy, with significantly increased shareholder distributions while maintaining the necessary firepower to invest in the business on the back of the expected increase in cash received from performance related earnings from £500m in the last five years to £2.4bn in the next five years.”
